This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Milwaukee that is going to be the last UFC on FOX card on account of the new ESPN deal. We are back to getting smaller prize pools with this particular occasion but there’s still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entry with $15,000 to 1st place. Those huge GPPs with a wonderful top prize are always my favourite contests to pursue so I’ll be taking some shots at that. Aside from that, I will stick to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will get a good amount of play in cash games. Here are a few plays I like for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The most important event is nearly always the best struggle to get into money games and stacking both fighters from a 5-round battle usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can stack the most important event here as well, but I think Kevin Lee is your must play of both. He is a -335 favored and -135 ITD in order that he wins he’s going to score tremendously and based on Vegas he has a 77% chance of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he even possess a high floor, but he probably has the highest ceiling onto the card too. That is where I will be starting my money lineup weekly.
GPP play of this week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we found a great deal of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is almost a PK fight on the betting odds today. Usually when that happens we see the ownership on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership due to the value. I believe Gordon’s ownership will go down because of this and that is what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes in the maximum pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes per minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns each 15-minutes. He does not even need a finish to score 100+ points and that is the reason why I enjoy him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he can win then he should score well.
Underdog play of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 cheaper than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is just +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 gaming lineup. I love the value we’re getting there, and that I think Rodriguez wins this fight. I really do expect him to become one of the most popular underdogs on the card, but it is chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it’s likely going to be by knockout so not only could he have the triumph, but he would score highly too. I think if he does win this fight he then ends up on the 1st place lineup and he’s my favourite underdog of this week because of this.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose since I think he loses, I am actually picking him to win a Unanimous Decision here. I’m fading him since he’s $9.3k and together with his fighting style that I don’t see him becoming more than 10x that salary. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of them. Klose has 3 UFC wins so far in his career and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. When he scores around this region again in this fight, then pretty much kills your odds in winning a GPP because the other guys because $9k range probably score higher and probably even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on every fight, my private strategies & recommendations, and also my pick prediction for every single fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 47-28 to get +169.81u (+$16,981) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the previous 7 weeks!)
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